iCommentarius
On Edge: Opening Pandora’s Box and Plunging into the Abyss
My purpose in writing this newsletter is to inform the reader and to suggest why you might feel ‘on edge’ about current events that threaten humanity. Such concerns include wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, possible nuclear war, America’s cultural war, Trump’s abuse of power, the destruction of democracy, trade wars, and other concerns such as threats posed by artificial intelligence and climate change. Top of mind is always the economy.
I’m an eternal optimist who believes that we’re better able to mitigate the threats when we’re aware of them.
Today we lead off with the opening of Pandora’s box in the Middle East and Trump plunging the U.S. into the abyss.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has argued for decades that Iran was on the verge of producing a nuclear weapon.
On June 15, Netanyahu ordered an attack on Iran because he believed Tehran was "marching very quickly" toward a bomb.
"The intel we got, and we shared with the United States was absolutely clear, it was absolutely clear that they [the Iranians] were working, in a secret plan, to weaponize the uranium," he said.
As I have intimated on numerous occasions, Netanyahu isn’t interested in de-escalation. He wants a war with all Palestinian armed groups, and Iran. I believe that conflict with Iran has been the goal since the Gaza war began. Netanyahu knew that the U.S. would support Israel and help him achieve his goals, including expanding the conflict to draw in Iran.
On June 18, Trump telegraphed his intentions regarding Iran during a ceremony unveiling two new flagpoles at the White House. He had been peppered throughout with questions from reporters about his plans for Iran. Trump told one reporter that much has changed during his second term in the White House: “I was the hunted. And now I’m the hunter. It’s a big difference.”
On June 21, the U.S. launched a major attack on Iran's nuclear sites using B-2 bombers and Tomahawk missiles, significantly damaging Iran's nuclear capabilities.
The U.S. attack was executed with military precision using B-2 Spirit strategic bombers and Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from naval platforms.
The facilities attacked included the nuclear facilities at Natanz and Isfahan, which were neutralized by 30 Tomahawk missiles launched from a distance of approximately 400 miles. The main target was the Fordow plant, which is considered a cornerstone of Iran's nuclear program.
The use of five to six bunker buster bombs indicates the involvement of three B-2 Spirit bombers, each capable of carrying two high-penetration bombs.
The GBU-57 bunker buster bombs used in the operation represent the latest technology in deep penetration weaponry. These weapons are specifically designed to neutralize fortified underground targets, such as Iranian nuclear facilities.
The 30 Tomahawk missiles used in the attack represent the gold standard in long-range cruise missiles for the U.S. Navy.
The operation demonstrated Washington's ability to execute long-range precision strikes against highly defended targets, using its most advanced military technology.
Opening Pandora’s Box
On June 13, Israeli Mossad commandos led a series of covert operations deep inside Iran leading up to Israel's strikes, an Israeli security source said. Those operations included deploying precision-guided weapons in open areas near Iranian surface-to-air missile systems sites, advanced technology used against Iran's air defense systems and the establishment of an attack-drone base near Teheran, the security source said. The U.S. claimed that they were not involved in the attack but were aware it was going to occur.
Hours later, Iran responded with supreme leader Khamenei stating that Israel will receive a harsh punishment and that with this attack, "Israel has prepared a bitter fate for itself, which it will surely receive. "Israel unleashed its wicked and bloody hand in a crime against Iran."
Following his comments, Iran launched a series of drone and missile attacks targeting Israel, who responded with additional strikes throughout the day. The U.S. committed defensive assets to shoot down the Iranian missiles.
On June 14, the Iranian’s issued a statement saying that "any country that assists in intercepting Iranian strikes on Israel will be considered a co-belligerent, and all its regional bases, including military installations in the Persian Gulf states, as well as naval vessels in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea, will be targeted by Iranian forces."
If Iran fails to damage Israel's well-protected military and other targets, it could aim its missiles at softer targets in the Gulf, especially countries that Iran believes aided and abetted its enemies over the years. There are many energy and infrastructure targets in the region. Some of these oil-producing countries play host to U.S. airbases. Some also – discreetly – helped defend Israel from Iranian missile attacks last year.
Two of these countries – Saudi Arabia and Oman – quickly condemned Israel's early morning attack on Iran. Tensions are also running high in Iraq. In Iraq there are well-established paramilitaries, known as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). Many of their fighters' pledge loyalty to Iranian religious and military leadership because the neighboring country has provided them with financial, logistical and even spiritual support, as well as arms.
Both Israel and Iran have continued their attacks with casualties mounting on both sides.
On June 17, Netanyahu stated during a news conference that Israel is pursuing three objectives, “the elimination of Iran’s nuclear program, the elimination of ballistic missile production capability, and the elimination of the axis of terrorism,” referring to Iran’s Ring of Fire. “We will do what is necessary to achieve these goals, and we are well coordinated with the United States.”
Plunging into the Abyss
On June 21, the U.S. launched a major attack on Iran's nuclear sites using B-2 bombers and Tomahawk missiles, significantly damaging Iran's nuclear capabilities.
The U.S. attack was executed with military precision using B-2 Spirit strategic bombers and Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from naval platforms.
The facilities attacked included the nuclear facilities at Natanz and Isfahan, which were neutralized by 30 Tomahawk missiles launched from a distance of approximately 400 miles. The main target was the Fordow plant, which is considered a cornerstone of Iran's nuclear program.
In the weeks leading up to the attack, the U.S. deployed a considerable military force to the Middle East. This deployment included the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz, Air Force F-16, F-22 and F-35 fighters, in addition to the B-2 bombers that took part in the operation.
The use of five to six bunker buster bombs indicates the involvement of three B-2 Spirit bombers, each capable of carrying two high-penetration bombs.
B-2 capabilities:
Stealth technology: Virtually undetectable by conventional radar.
Range: 6,800 miles without refueling.
Payload: Up to 50,000 pounds of weaponry.
Crew: Two pilots with 44 hours of continuous flight capability.
The GBU-57 bunker buster bombs used in the operation represent the latest technology in deep penetration weaponry. These weapons are specifically designed to neutralize fortified underground targets, such as Iranian nuclear facilities.
Technical characteristics:
Weight: Between 14,000 and 30,000 pounds depending on the model.
Penetration capability: Up to 200 feet of earth and 60 feet of reinforced concrete.
Warhead: High explosive with delayed detonation after penetration.
Guidance: High-precision GPS system with in-flight correction capability.
The 30 Tomahawk missiles used in the attack represent the gold standard in long-range cruise missiles for the U.S. Navy.
Tomahawk specifications:
Range: Up to 1,600 miles for the latest models.
Speed: Approximately 550 m/h (subsonic).
Warhead: 1,000 pounds of conventional explosive.
Guidance: Inertial navigation system combined with GPS and terrain mapping.
Accuracy: Margin of error less than 33 feet.
Launch platforms: Virginia and Los Angeles class attack submarines, Arleigh Burke class destroyers.
The operation demonstrated Washington's ability to execute long-range precision strikes against highly defended targets, using its most advanced military technology.
In a briefing with reporters, Israeli former Mossad official and Iran expert Sima Shine offered a mixed verdict on the U.S. airstrikes.
"It's much better than what we thought it would be," she said, but then added, "I don't think it's complete destruction of the project."
Shine suggested Iran may be hiding enriched uranium and advanced centrifuges elsewhere and could build a bomb in secret.
At this point Iran could either escalate its attacks into war or sign a peace and nuclear technology non-proliferation agreement as Trump initially sought.
Iran says it “reserves all options,” which could include targeting U.S. bases in the region or disrupting global trade by closing the Strait of Hormuz; Trump said any Iranian retaliation against U.S. assets “will be met with even greater force than what was unleashed today.” The next few days could be explosive!
Close the Strait of Hormuz
On June 14, Iran’s state-run media reported that Iran is pondering whether to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane to the Persian Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. Roughly 20 million barrels of oil pass through per day, amounting to about one-fifth of global oil shipments.
On June 22, Iran's parliament approved closing the Strait of Hormuz after U.S. strikes. It’s not likely that Iran will take this step. Their economy is too dependent on oil revenue.
Expand the Battlefield
The Iranians could decide to target the U.S. and its allies in the region. They still possess a formidable arsenal of ballistic missiles.
Israeli interception of Iranian missiles fell from 90% to 65% on June 19. The Iranians are using the older technology and inventory first and appear to now be using the newer technology and inventory. On June 20, it was reported that a Sejjil-2 missile hit Haifa.
Iran's ballistic missile arsenal was estimated to include over 3,000 missiles at the start of the Gaza War. Although recently depleted by 500-1000 missiles, this large inventory comprises a diverse array of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) and medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs).
Short-Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBMs) that can reach Israel
Shahab-2: Liquid-fueled missiles with a range of 750 km.
Qiam-1: A liquid-fueled SRBM with a range of 750 km and a smart targeting system.
Zolfaghar: A solid-fuel SRBM with a range of 750 km.
Medium-Range Ballistic Missiles (MRBMs) that can reach Israel
Shahab-3: A liquid-fueled MRBM with a range of 2000 km.
Haj Qasem: A solid-fuel MRBM with a range of 1400 km.
Fattah-1: A hypersonic missile with a range of 1400 km.
Fattah-2: A hypersonic missile with a range of 1500 km.
Ghadr-110: A liquid-fueled MRBM with a range of 2000 km.
Sejjil-2: A two-stage, solid fueled MRBM with a range of 2000 km.
Khorramshahr: A liquid-fueled MRBM capable of carrying multiple warheads with a range of 2000 km.
Emad: An improved Shahab-3 variant with enhanced precision and a range of 2,000 km.
Activate Sleeper Cells
Iran allegedly sent a message to Trump during last week's G7 summit in Canada warning that it could activate sleeper cells inside America if attacked.
Sleeper cells comprised of spies or terrorists hiding out in the U.S. or Western countries, remain inactive, often living quiet and unassuming lives working regular jobs until they are ordered to act on a mission.
The U.S. is on heightened alert!
Activate Iran’s Ring of Fire
What role, if any, will the Iranian Axis of Resistance play in this war between Israel and Iran?
Israel calls it the “Ring of Fire” and Iran the “Axis of Resistance.” Both are describing a broad network of Iran-aligned forces that includes Hamas, the Hezbollah movement in Lebanon, Yemen's Houthi militia, and various Shi'ite Muslim armed groups in Iraq and Syria. Despite the Axis of Resistance being composed of primarily Shia Islamist factions, other militant groups receive support from Iran.
Iranian officials have stated that they don’t have control over or give orders to fellow factions of the Axis of Resistance.
Palestinian Territories – Hamas and Islamic Jihad
The Islamic Resistance Movement, better known as Hamas, is a broad community-based movement with a military wing, the Qassam Brigades. It has governed Gaza since 2007.
Islamic Jihad acts as an elite vanguard rather than a broad community-based movement like Hamas and is opposed to political engagement with Israel. Its armed wing, the al-Quds Brigades, was founded in 1992 and constitutes the armed wing of Islamic Jihad. It is the second-largest armed group in Gaza after Hamas’ Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades.
Both groups have a presence in the West Bank where they often cooperate with Fatah’s al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades.
Each of these groups have been significantly degraded over the past year! Hamas 1.0 has been crushed.
Lebanon - Hezbollah
Hezbollah is a Shi'ite Muslim political party and militant group based in Lebanon, where it has fostered a reputation as “a state within a state.”
They have been significantly degraded militarily by Israel, but the U.S. and its regional allies believe they will likely try to rebuild their stockpiles and forces. U.S. intelligence agencies assessed in recent weeks that Hezbollah, even amid Israel's military campaign, had begun to recruit new fighters and was trying to find ways to rearm through domestic production and by smuggling materials through Syria.
Syria
Syria’s new government is facing mounting criticism at home over its failure to condemn Israel for violating its air space to attack Iran, with Syrians demanding Damascus leverage its growing diplomatic relations and call for a halt to the breaches.
According to the British newspaper Middle East Eye, Erdogan contacted Syria’s new leader, al-Sharaa and advised him not to become involved in any regional escalation.
Syria's geographic location has made its skies a battleground for the tit-for-tat strikes.
Since Syria no longer appears to be an ally of Iran at this point the war with Israel, will Iran target them?
Iraq
Led by a coalition of mostly Shiite political parties and armed groups close to Iran, Iraq is a major player in Iran’s Axis of Resistance. They appear to be the strongest element still existing relatively unscathed within the Axis of Resistance.
There are a large number of militias operating in Iraq. They include Kata’ib Hezbollah, Badr Organization, Ass’ib Ahl al-haq, Hrarkat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, and Kata’ib Sayyed al-Shuhada. There numbers range from 90,000 to 160,000 men, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.
Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba and Kata’ib Hezbollah are considered the most powerful armed factions in the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of Iran-backed militias in the country. Both have vowed to continue their support of the Palestinian people.
Yemen – Houthi Militia
The Houthis are an Iranian-backed, Shiite Muslim armed religious and political movement in Yemen. The Houthis waged a series of bloody insurgencies against the Yemeni government for over a decade, leading to that regime’s overthrow in 2015.
The Houthis have targeted more than 100 vessels with missiles and drones since the war with Gaza started in October 2023. Thirty vessels have been damaged and two have sunk.
Over the past number of months, the Houthis have been significantly degraded through the actions of Israel and the U.S. in particular.
On June 17, it was reported that the Houthis will intervene to support Iran against Israel like it did in support of Palestinians in Gaza. Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of the Houthi movement's political bureau, also reiterated that the group is coordinating with Tehran during its ongoing military escalation with Israel.
Cyberattacks on U.S. Infrastructure
On June 22, the Department of Homeland Security issued this bulletin:
The ongoing Iran conflict is causing a heightened threat environment in the United States. Low-level cyber attacks against U.S. networks by pro-Iranian hacktivists are likely, and cyber actors affiliated with the Iranian government may conduct attacks against U.S. networks.
In August 2024, the FBI and other agencies released an advisory to warn that a group of Iran-based cyber actors continues to exploit U.S. and foreign organizations. This includes organizations across several sectors in the U.S. (including in the education, finance, healthcare, and defense sectors as well as local government entities) and other countries (including in Israel).
The FBI further assessed that these Iran-based cyber actors were associated with the government of Iran and conduct computer network exploitation activity in support of the Iran (such as intrusions enabling the theft of sensitive technical data against organizations in the U.S. and Israel).
The Iranian Regime
The Iranian people are largely pro-Western but during the last 40 years, after the ousting of the Shah, the Iranian people have been subjugated by an oppressive theocracy called the “Islamic Republic,” with a religious “Supreme Leader” overseeing all aspects of Iranian life.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is a branch of the Iranian military established after the 1979 Iranian Revolution. It operates alongside the regular Iranian army and is directly accountable to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The IRGC's role encompasses defense, foreign operations, and regional influence, including support for proxy groups across the Middle East.
Regime Change
I believe that conflict with Iran has been Netanyahu’s goal since the Gaza war began. Israel's endgame may be regime change in Iran - but it's a gamble.
Following Israel’s June 13 attack on Iran, Netanyahu said in a statement the “The time has come for the Iranian people to unite around its flag and its historic legacy, by standing up for your freedom from the evil and oppressive regime."
He might hope that the unprecedented strikes start a chain reaction leading to unrest that topples the Islamic Republic. Many Iranians are unhappy with the state of the economy, the lack of freedom of speech, women's rights, and minority rights.
But this is a gamble - a big one. There is no evidence that such a chain reaction will start in the first place, but even if it starts, it is unclear where such a process might lead. Those with the most power in Iran are the people who control the armed forces and the economy, and most of that is in the hands of hardliners in the IRGC and some other unelected bodies. They don't need to stage a coup because they are already in power, and they could take Iran in a more confrontational direction.
Another possible outcome could be that the regime collapses, and Iran descent into chaos. With a population of about 90 million people, events in the country would have a massive impact across the Middle East. Bringing down Iran's government might appeal to some in the region, especially some Israelis. But what vacuum might it leave? What unforeseen consequences would there be? What would civil conflict in Iran look like?
Many can still remember what happened to both Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan when regime change was attempted.
Will the Iranian people rise up and overthrow the regime? I believe that the regime’s days are numbered. How many people will have to die before they are toppled?
Cold Civil War
It always feels like a domestic powder keg is about to explode, turning a cold civil war hot. America has never been so evenly divided with both sides equally powerful.
In 1994, the federal government established a database to predict the likelihood of other countries engaging in civil war. The Political Instability Task Force (PITF) was created to monitor data coming from multiple civil war datasets available from around the world. According to Barbara Walters, Ph.D., a member of PITF, “civil wars ignite and escalate in ways that are predictable: they follow a script.” It turns out that one of the best predictors of civil war is whether a country is moving toward or away from democracy. Current data suggests to Dr. Walters that the U.S. has entered dangerous territory. Her book, How Civil Wars Start presents compelling arguments for her concern.
A poll conducted by NPR/PBS/Marist in March 2024 suggested that one-fifth of the country believes that violence may be necessary to get America back on its feet. Of the 20% who agreed, 6% agreed “strongly.” Forty two percent of the 18-29 age demographic agreed or strongly agreed that violence may be necessary to get the country back on track. A poll conducted by the University of Chicago in June 2024 showed that nearly 20% of Americans would support violence either for or against Trump.
The assassination of a Democratic Minnesota state lawmaker from Minnesota and her husband and the shooting of another lawmaker and his wife at their homes are just the latest addition to a long and unsettling increase in political violence in the U.S.
Republican and Democratic politicians are warning about rising violence targeting elected officials in the aftermath of a series of attacks.
Within the last year, there have been two assassination attempts against President Donald Trump, the firebombing of protestors at a Colorado march calling for the release of Israeli hostages, the firebombing of Democratic Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro’s residence, and the killing of two Israeli Embassy staffers in Washington — setting a new cycle of violence in the country.
Some pundits have suggested that Trump’s military parade on June 14 could be seen as a "dress rehearsal" for a more serious or politically driven use of military power in the future. Let’s hope not!
The Authoritarian President
The majority of the Robert’s Supreme Court in 2024 granted presidents an unprecedented amount of power, with far-reaching consequences for the American system of government and democracy itself. The Supreme Court has morphed the presidency—with its constitutional checks and balances—into a dictatorship allowing crimes to be committed with impunity in the name of the president’s official duties as the executive. Based on the majority opinion, a president would have absolute immunity to sell pardons; accept bribes in exchange for vetoing a piece of legislation; poison their own attorney general; obstruct the Department of Justice (DOJ) from carrying out investigations of allies; or direct the DOJ to go after political opponents. The president also has the presumption of immunity—if not absolute immunity—for all other official actions as commander in chief, such as assassinating political rivals and deploying a military coup to stay in power. That all might sound like a dictatorship, but it is now our American reality.
Many of Trump’s actions since January 21 are those of an authoritarian. Will he continue as the Dictator? Count on it! It’s all about the power, now!
Trump’s recent show of strength in Los Angeles, and the Musk/Trump feud are just diversions to distract us from his power grab. He’s attempting to change the Constitution and expand the power of the executive branch with the help of his cronies on the Supreme Court.
Many of the lower court rulings against Trump’s power grab will be decided by the Supreme Court, which has shown a willingness to expand the power of the Executive Branch. What support might they lend to Trump’s show of force in Los Angeles?
Power Grab
The 2024 election was about the soul of our country, our collective consciousness. The dynamics of the contest included multi-cultural democracy versus white authoritarianism, and order versus chaos. The extreme polar positions of the inverted bell curve that is today’s electorate saw this election as existential. Now, the white authoritarians and proponents of chaos are unfettered in pursuit of their agenda.
To his supporters, the shock-and-awe approach he has unleashed during the first 100 days has been a tangible demonstration of an all-action president, delivering on his promises and enacting long-awaited reforms. But his critics fear he is doing irreparable harm to the country and overstepping his powers - crippling important government functions and perhaps permanently reshaping the presidency in the process.
Legal and constitutional experts have warned that the U.S. could be headed toward a constitutional crisis or a breakdown of the system after Vice President Vance suggested judges don't have jurisdiction over President Donald Trump's legitimate power.
"If a judge tried to tell a general how to conduct a military operation, that would be illegal. If a judge tried to command the attorney general in how to use her discretion as a prosecutor, that’s also illegal.... Judges aren’t allowed to control the executive’s legitimate power."
All of these actions are setting up legal fights as to the scope of executive power. Trump is attempting to exert control and authority over the operations of federal government in a way that's unprecedented. If he is successful in breaking all or some of the constraints put on the president in the post-Watergate era, it would usher in a new era with little or no independent checks on the president and politicized agencies.
The Caudillos
Caudillismo is a system of political power based on the leadership of and allegiance to a "strongman," who is sometimes also recognized as a dictator. The term stems from the Spanish word "caudillo," which refers to the head of a political faction, historically an authoritarian leader. Both Trump and Musk are caudillos.
Donald Trump. We know Trump will attempt to do what he has said publicly. He will aggressively pursue most of his campaign promises during the first 100 Days. Trump's main goal is to unwind Biden's policies and resume where he left off after his first term in office. He has suggested that he is King, a dictator, and that he wants to stay in power after his second term ends in January 2029.
Elon Musk. He is a dangerous man! Musk is powerful because he has combined the physical – large factories, lots of employees and valuable products with the digital – control over how information spreads. Musk is one of 2,544 people who control 2.64% of the world’s wealth. He’s one of the three wealthiest men in the world.
Musk senses a power vacuum in four years that he appears ready to fill. Trump is lame duck and there is currently no successor to harness his base of Trumpites, some 69 million voters. Trump is 78 years old as well.
Musk is all about power and he sees an opportunity. Remember that during an interview in May 2023, Musk used a movie scene to make his point that it’s all about money and power and went on to boast, “I’ll say what I want to say, and if it means losing money, so be it.” He’s in a position now to do what he wants to do.
On June 11, Musk tweeted:
I regret some of my posts about President @realDonaldTrump last week. They went too far.
Chief Justice Roberts and his conservative cronies on the bench empowered Frankenstein and now Roberts has to deal with the monster they created!
The Oligarchs
There are other powerful people who want to destroy the administrative state. Their mission is bigger than Trump! The billionaires - Rebekah Mercer, Timothy Mellon, Peter Thiel, Ray Dalio, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Hussain Sajwani, Mark Zuckerberg and others - are attempting to expand their wealth and influence. Their presence at Trump’s inauguration in January was disturbing!
This new American form of oligarchy is built on your data, your attention, your money! These oligarchs exult in their almost godlike status over the politicians they fund, the platforms they own, and the industries they’ve effectively monopolized. Many of them control the channels of communication, especially social media. Behold the propaganda! They don’t care about noblesse oblige (noble obligation)! White authoritarianism’s triumph over multi-cultural democracy is the plan.
Make no mistake about it, we are engaged in a battle between American autocracy and multi-cultural democracy, and the average American has much to lose.
Trump’s Private Militia
By pardoning the leadership of the Jan 6 insurrection, he has activated his private militia. These people now feel emboldened, and we’ll see their ranks swell with new members.
Proud Boys. This far-right, neo-fascist militant organization has re-emerged as the “unofficial” protectors of Trump.” Four years after the violent all-male extremist group led the storming of Congress on Jan. 6, 2021, they are rebuilding and regaining strength.
In January 2025, former Proud Boys chairman Enrique Tarrio was granted clemency by Trump. In his first hours of freedom, he was focused on seeking vengeance against those who investigated and prosecuted the events of Jan. 6. “Now it’s our turn,” Mr. Tarrio declared. “The people who did this, they need to feel the heat,” he said. “They need to be put behind bars and they need to be prosecuted.” The group’s resilience has surprised experts.
On June 14, former Proud Boys leader Enrique Tarrio was spotted at a No Kings protest near the Torch of Friendship in downtown Miami. Also, Proud Boy counter-protesters were spotted in various locations, including Boston. Amusingly, musicians surrounded the Proud Boys in Atlanta and drowned out their voices with tubas.
Oath Keepers. The Oath Keepers are a far-right anti-government militia. Stewart Rhodes, the leader of the Oath Keepers who was convicted of seditious conspiracy in 2022 was granted clemency by Trump. Like Tarrio, He also accused the people who oversaw his trial of breaking the law. “What has to happen first,” Mr. Rhodes said, “is that the prosecutors who suborned perjury — that’s a crime — need to be prosecuted for their crimes.”
Patriot Front. The group’s manifesto claims those in America who are not of European ancestry are not truly American.
“To be an American is to be a descendant of conquerors, pioneers, visionaries, and explorers. This unique identity was given to us by our ancestors, and this national spirit remains firmly rooted in our blood,” the manifesto states.
“Nationhood cannot be bestowed upon those who are not of the founding stock of our people, and those who do not share the common spirit that permeates our greater civilization, and the European diaspora,” the manifesto adds.
Patriot Front is an offshoot of Vanguard America, a group that participated in the “United the Right” rally in Charlotte, Virginia.
Authoritarian Game Plan
Project 2025 is a product of the Heritage Foundation, one of Washington's most prominent right-wing think tanks. In addition, more than 100 conservative organizations contributed to the document. Dozens of former officials from the last Trump administration contributed to the proposals. Project 2025 serves as the blueprint for the administration’s authoritarian game plan.
The administrative state that Project 2025 seeks to build is one that fits a distinctly American authoritarian model. That means first and foremost a consolidation of political power in the President by eliminating the political insulation that independent agencies have long enjoyed and ending the Justice Department’s tradition of independence from the president. It requires a significant erosion of constitutional checks and balances and federalism principles, including gutting congressional oversight. The most crucial element of all is its hostile disposition toward the rule of law.
This new model is, of course, necessary for the consolidation of political power in the President. Civil servants will be expected to pledge their loyalty to the President above their oath to uphold the law whenever the two conflict. We have seen the same pattern when countries move away from democracy and toward authoritarianism. One of the first moves is to change the civil service to a loyalist workforce as opposed to a merit-driven workforce. Trump has put the Cuckoo’s Nest in charge to disrupt and neutralize the agencies and very departments they oversee. Chaos is part of the strategy. He can blame these incompetent secretaries when things don’t go well and thus insolate himself from culpability. Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth being a great example.
It turns out, achieving Project 2025’s vision of a Christian nationalist, “anti-woke” society requires an aggressive transformation of the administrative state to support this consolidation of power.
Control Information
To control the creation of information and its dissemination is to control the world.
When Congress passed the Privacy Act of 1974, lawmakers expressed concerns about personal information amassed in digital databases by the “omnivorous fact collectors” of federal agencies. During the debate about the bill, Arizona Republican Sen. Barry Goldwater was worried about the possibility “that every detail of our personal lives can be assembled instantly for use by a single bureaucrat or institution.”
Fifty years later, the DOGE effort headed by Musk appears to be doing just that, bypassing the Privacy Act, agency security protocols and training for handling the most sensitive data maintained by federal agencies.
The federal government maintains a large amount of sensitive data, from health records of veterans and Medicare recipients to troves of information about companies being investigated by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the National Labor Relations Board.
Grab the Data
Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is based on the principle that Trump can make significant changes to the federal bureaucracy through executive order and therefore eliminate jobs and possibly entire agencies. The DOGE initiative, which was initially spearheaded by Elon Musk, aims to overhaul and streamline government operations by drastically cutting costs and reducing workforce redundancy. Within weeks of Trump’s second inauguration, Musk’s DOGE team had positioned people across the federal government, disrupting functions, gaining access to sensitive data, and executing cuts.
It is the access to sensitive data that should concern everyone. On June 6, the Supreme Court allowed DOGE to access to Social Security Administration data that includes sensitive personal information of millions of Americans. In its decision, the Supreme Court concluded the Social Security Administration may give DOGE access to agency records while the case plays out “in order for those members to do their work.”
“This is a sad day for our democracy and a scary day for millions of people,” said the coalition of plaintiffs including American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees; the American Federation of Teachers; and the Alliance for Retired Americans, who are represented by Democracy Forward.
“This ruling will enable President Trump and DOGE’s affiliates to steal Americans’ private and personal data,” they said, while vowing to “use every legal tool at our disposal” to prevent the misuse of public data as the case moves forward. The dispute focuses on how much access DOGE should have to Americans’ personal data.
Who controls this data? Does Elon Musk have access to this data? Who else has access?
It is my belief that DOGE and Trump have your social security number and much of your personal information that is tied to it. Big Brother Is Watching You!
Restrict Access to the Information
Knowledge institutions – including universities, the truth-oriented press, government offices with data collection or scientific responsibilities – are crucial for constitutional democracies. They have as a central mission the search for truth or better understandings, through independent application of disciplinary or professional standards of reliability.
The Trump administration is shuttering government sources of information at an alarming rate. Starting in late January 2025, thousands of federal web pages have been altered or removed, preventing public access to information on a range of topics related to science, health, equity, and foreign assistance programs, among others.
Authoritarianism depends on secrecy and thrives on misinformation. Public access to information and the historical record is a cornerstone of a healthy democracy, and the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) ensures that executive branch actions are documented and eventually made available to the public, as required by laws like the Presidential Records Act and the Freedom of Information Act.
The Trump administration is threatening the independence and functioning of the agency charged with maintaining valuable historical records. In February 2025, Trump pushed out the acting archivist for NARA. He announced on Truth Social that NARA’s professional leadership was being temporarily replaced by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The takeover endangers not just the preservation of documents, but also our history.
Since Trump retook office on January 20, libraries and librarianship have also been assaulted via executive orders and other actions. While the legality of many of these actions is still being decided by the courts, librarians, archivists, and other information professionals have been working through the confusion to preserve access to information.
Control the Narrative
To the delight of his fans and dismay of his detractors, Trump has made so many pronouncements and held so many press Q&A’s that he has been all but impossible to avoid. “The strongman must appear not just omnipotent but also omnipresent, he is everywhere,” says history professor Ruth Ben-Ghiat.
Attacking press freedom is indicative of an authoritarian shift in government. Trump’s administration has weaponized institutions, cut support for independent media, and sidelined reporters.
The Trump administration has waged a fierce attack against the media. They have sued ABC, Meta and the Des Moines Register and threatened legal action against The New York Times. His is now attempting to extort billions from CBS for a ‘60 Minutes’ story he didn’t like. He has called CNN and MSNBC “illegal.”
On March 15, Trump announced he was cutting funding for state-funded broadcasters such as Voice of America and Radio Free Europe, as well as U.S. foreign development aid that assisted media outlets overseas.
On May 1, Trump signed an executive order cutting funding to public news outlets NPR and PBS, calling them biased. He also said he was considering taking legal action against The New York Times.
On May 2, Reporters Without Borders (RSF), often referred to as a media watchdog, sounded the alarm on Trump’s crack down on political dissent:
"In the United States, Donald Trump's second term as president has led to an alarming deterioration in press freedom, indicative of an authoritarian shift in government," RSF said. They went on to say, "His administration has weaponized institutions, cut support for independent media, and sidelined reporters."
According to industry experts, vast regions of the U.S. are turning into "news deserts.”
Crush Dissent
Beware of the planned protests around the country on June 14! It could be a trap to arrest protestors or minimally brand them as traitors.
As Trump dismantles federal agencies, his administration is also creating a chill among non-governmental groups, cowing non-profits, intimidating universities and extracting commitments from law firms to support his aims.
In July 2024, Kevin Roberts, president of the Heritage Foundation raised the specter of violence against those who refuse to capitulate to what he characterized as "the second American Revolution" ushered in by Donald Trump.
"We are in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be," said Kevin Roberts.
During a rally in Aurora, Colorado in October 2024, Trump said:
“I protect you against outside enemies. But, you know, I always say we have the outside enemy. So, you can say China, you can say Russia. But that’s not it … It’s the enemy from within. All the scum that we have to deal with that hate our country, that’s a bigger enemy than China and Russia.”
Vance said in October 2024 that the justification for use of military force against Americans “depends on what’s actually happening” and he went on to say, “I wanna be clear here, I’m not painting the entire Democratic Party with a broad brush. I’m painting the leadership and the far-left activists.”
Trump has made it a centerpiece of his second term to take actions against organizations, including law firms and universities, that he doesn't perceive to be aligned with his agenda.
Attack the Universities
The Trump administration has withheld funding from some of the leading universities in the country because their students and faculty hold views that Trump disagrees with.
For years, Trump and Vance have railed against American universities.
"We are going to choke off the money to schools that aid the Marxist assault on our American heritage and on Western civilization itself," Trump said in 2023. "The days of subsidizing communist indoctrination in our colleges will soon be over."
Vance gave a 2021 speech titled "The Universities Are the Enemy" and later said that universities had mainstreamed what he called "the anti-whiteness movement."
Now in office, the Trump administration has launched investigations into dozens of universities, citing failures to protect students from antisemitism and alleged civil rights violations related to diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) policies. The administration has also pulled billions of dollars in funding from universities.
The Trump administration’s aggressive aim at Harvard University and other higher education institutions is being quietly spearheaded by a Justice Department-led task force under the leadership of former Fox News personality and civil rights lawyer Leo Terrell, in conjunction with top Trump official Stephen Miller and others.
On April 15, Trump threatened to go beyond withholding federal funds from Harvard for not bowing to his wishes and threatened Harvard’s tax-exempt status. The American right once prided itself on defending freedom of speech, limited government, and the insulation of universities from heavy-handed federal control. The freedom of universities to determine their own faculty, curricula, and academic standards — including the freedom to err — is a bedrock constitutional value. Attempts to coerce Harvard, Columbia, or any other institution into political conformity should alarm anyone committed to liberty, no matter their opinion of the particular universities involved. How will Robert’s court respond to this blatant abuse of power?
Manipulate Free and Fair Elections
On April 24, Trump ordered the Justice Department to investigate ActBlue, the online donations platform and crucial fundraising tool for Democrats. ActBlue issued this statement in response
“The Trump Administration’s and GOP’s targeting of ActBlue is part of their brazen attack on democracy in America. Today’s escalation by the White House is blatantly unlawful and needs to be seen for what it is: Donald Trump’s latest front in his campaign to stamp out all political, electoral and ideological opposition.”
Several Democratic groups, including the Democratic National Committee and the Democratic Governors Association, said in a joint statement that Trump's threat is "designed to undermine democratic participation."
Comedian Bill Maher recently said, “When you have power, it allows you to get more power. And now they have all the power. That’s not good. I’m not sure we will ever see another election.” Let’s hope he is wrong!
Threaten the Courts
The Trump administration is threatening to impeach judges who rule against Trump’s policies. The Trump administration is also openly defying Supreme Court orders.
Invoke the Alien and Sedition Acts of 1798
There are four laws that are collectively known as the Alien and Sedition Acts.
Naturalization Act. This act increased the residency requirement for naturalization from 5 to 14 years.
Alien Act. This act allowed the President to deport any non-citizen deemed dangerous to the peace and safety of the United States.
Alien Enemies Act. This act grants the President broad powers to detain and deport non-U.S. citizens deemed enemies during wartime.
Sedition Act. This act criminalized criticism of the government.
Invoke the Sedition Act of 1918
The Sedition Act of 1918 was enacted to extend the Espionage Act of 1917. Congress passed the Espionage Act shortly after the U.S. entered the war. The Act made it a crime to convey information intended to interfere with the war effort. The Sedition Act imposed harsh penalties for a wide range of dissenting speech, including speech abusing the U.S. government, the flag, the Constitution, and the military. These laws were directed at socialists, pacifists, and other anti-war activists.
Invoke the Insurrection Act of 1807
The Insurrection Act of !807 empowers the President to use active-duty military personnel to suppress insurrection, domestic violence, and other situations where a State is unable or unwilling to maintain order and enforce laws.
Trump has threatened to use these tools against American citizens in 2025!
Are we in danger of losing our democracy? Is the next election at risk?
In the eyes of the world, the U.S. under Trump has become a pariah state. We’re no longer “the shining city upon a hill,” a beacon of hope to the world.
The Protectors of Democracy must protect our most important democratic principles – fair elections, freedom of speech and choice, the right to Peaceful protest.
It's the Economy, Always
In Trump’s “one big, beautiful bill,” Republicans are throwing millions of Americans off health care and taking food away from children so that 24 million billionaires and millionaires can... buy an extra yacht. At the same time, Republicans are increasing government debt to the point where Moody’s downgraded the U.S. last week. Trump’s autocratic buddies around the world better step up and buy this new debt or we are in big trouble.
We are in dangerous times when it comes to the economy. Political dysfunction is hurting our economy and prestige! In August 2023, Rating agency Fitch downgraded the U.S. for the second time in our history, citing politics. The next month, rating agency Moody’s downgraded the country’s economic outlook to “negative” from “stable,” citing growing fiscal deficits. They both got it right, out-of-control spending and political dysfunction are serious threats to our prosperity. Nothing has changed since 2023.
On May 16, Moody’s Ratings slashed the United States’ credit rating down a notch to Aa1 from the highest triple A, citing the budgetary burden the government faces amid high interest rates.
“This one-notch downgrade on our 21-notch rating scale reflects the increase over more than a decade in government debt and interest payment ratios to levels that are significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns,” the ratings agency said in a statement.
Adding Trump’s turbulent trade war to the mix could put the Federal Reserve in a difficult situation it hasn’t seen in almost 50 years. ln the 1970s and early 1980s, the U.S. economy suffered periods of high unemployment and double-digit inflation, a troublesome combination known as “stagflation.” The U.S. economy seems to be heading in that direction, according to most forecasts, but it’s unclear whether or not it will fully reach that point.
Moody’s downgrade, the budget bill passed by the House in the middle of the night, and the ongoing economic uncertainty created by Trump's tariffs are all worsening how investors — as well as businesses and consumers — feel about the United States, and its role in the global economy.
Trump will always attempt to blame negative economic news on his predecessor. But with his actions during the first three months of his administration, he OWNS all negative impact from those actions.
The Volatile Stock Market
Since Trump took office in his second term, the Dow has declined some three percent, falling from 43,487.83 the day before his inauguration to close at 42,215.80 on June 18. As of this writing, the Dow is down another 44.14 points.
Stock-market volatility saw outsized swings up and down in April, as investors dealt with uncertain negotiations around the “reciprocal” tariffs announced by White House on April 2. There is great angst in the marketplace today!
Bond Market Concerns
When stocks fell in response to tariffs, the market for U.S. government bonds — the safest, most vanilla of assets — should have been the go-to place for investors. That didn’t happen. U.S. treasuries started behaving like risk assets, a sign that investors are losing confidence in America’s ability to pay its debt and manage its economy. That’s the financial equivalent of a five-alarm fire.
On May 30, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said at an event organized by the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation:
“You are going to see a crack in the bond market — OK, It is going to happen. And I tell this to my regulators — some of who are in this room — I'm telling you this is going to happen. And you are going to panic.”
Meanwhile, the value of the U.S. dollar has been falling — another sign investors are shying away from what has historically been the market’s safe haven.
On April 9, Trump paused some of his more draconian tariffs impacting 75 countries for 90 days. Ahead of Trump's announcement, some of his advisers had been in a near panic about the bond markets, according to a senior administration official. Interest rates on 10-year Treasury bonds had been rising, contrary to what normally happens when stock prices fall, and investors seek safety in treasuries. The unusual dynamic meant that at the same time the tariffs could push up prices, people would be paying more to buy homes or pay off credit card debt because of higher interest rates. Businesses looking to expand would pay more for new loans.
On May 23, long-term Treasuries fell further; and yields, which trade in opposite direction to prices, continued to surge. The rate on the 10-year Treasury rose above 4.61%, and the 30-year eclipsed 5.14% — its highest level since October 2023.
And the “Sell America” trade — in which U.S. stocks, dollar and bonds have become less attractive — has reignited over growing debt concerns because of the tax cut bill and the downgrade from Moody’s on May 14. That raised fears that foreign investors may not want to invest in U.S. Treasuries in the future. Some speculate foreign countries could also be dumping U.S. Treasuries in retaliation against Trump’s sweeping tariff plan. This has spooked markets. Yields on 30-year U.S. Treasuries have spiked above 5% this week — an unusual, and unsettling, surge in the price that the U.S. government pays on its long-term debt.
But there is another, even bigger, concern for both mortgage investors and for the all-important housing market. What if China, one of the largest holders of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), decides to sell those holdings as well in response to the U.S. trade policies. And what if other countries follow? At the end of January, foreign countries owned $1.32 trillion worth of U.S. MBS, or 15% of the total outstanding.
China had already begun selling off some U.S. MBS last year, with the country’s holdings at the end of September down 8.7% year over year and down 20% by the start of December. If China were to accelerate those sales further, and if other nations were to follow, mortgage rates would rise even more than they are now.
U.S. Government Debt
In April 2024, Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s biggest hedge fund, said he was anxious about waning investor appetite for U.S. government bonds. “I’m… concerned about the softening demand to meet supply, particularly from international buyers worried about the U.S. debt picture.” Interestingly, Saudi Arabia has been reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds for some time.
At the same time, the IMF said the high and rising level of U.S. government debt risked driving up borrowing costs around the world and undermining global financial stability.
In May 2024, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said he hoped the U.S. government would focus on reducing its budget deficit before financial markets force it to.
“The sooner we focus on it, the better,” Dimon added. “At one point, it will cause a problem… the problem will be caused by the market, and then you’ll be forced to deal with it and probably in a far more uncomfortable way than if you dealt with it to start.”
Now, bond investors are worried about the potential for Republican-led tax cuts to widen the already-growing federal budget deficit. A larger deficit means the government needs to sell more bonds to finance the debt, potentially leaving less for private debt and raising the all-around cost of borrowing.
The controversial plan to make Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent by ignoring the cost to the deficit has raised warnings from party fiscal hawks and independent analysts of a potential "debt spiral" that could undermine economic growth.
Targeting the Entitlement Programs
Trump has called Social Security a ‘scam,’ and now Musk is calling it a ‘Ponzi scheme’. Will they fix it or try to take it away?
The House of Representatives is trying to lay the groundwork for rushed and drastic cuts to Medicaid. These cuts would take health care away from people who need it most, including older adults, people with disabilities, and children who get their health insurance from Medicaid to support them in their homes and communities. No one with Medicaid is safe from these cuts. Trump claims that he doesn’t support cuts to Medicare or Medicaid. Should we trust him?
Trump’s Economic War Against the World
In his first term, Trump said he “had two things to do - run the country and survive” but in his second term “I run the country and the world,” Trump said. Yes, he said this!
The wealthiest country in the world launched economic warfare on the world.
Mexico and Canada: Canada and Mexico were targeted by Trump back in February. He announced a 25% tax on exports from both countries and a 10% levy on Canadian energy. There have since been a number of exemptions and delays.
Steel and aluminum: A 25% import tax on all steel and aluminum entering the U.S., including products made from these metals took effect on March 12.
Cars: The White House announced in March 25% tariffs on cars beginning on April 2. A similar 25% levy on car parts is to begin on May 3.
Higher tariffs announced and paused: Tariffs on roughly 60 countries, which were described by Trump as the "worst offenders", were introduced on April 9. Trump then announced a 90-day pause, during which the 10% "baseline" rate will be paid. This announcement excludes China.
China: A 10% tariff on goods from China to the U.S. was unveiled in February. Tariffs for China have since increased to 125%. However, for some Chinese products taxes will be set at 145%, due to a previous 20% levy for those producing the drug fentanyl. On April 12, China put tariffs on U.S. imports at 125% and has said it will not respond to any further U.S. increases because they will become a "joke". On May 12, the two sides agreed to a mutual reduction in their respective tariff rates for an initial period of 90 days, bringing rates down to near the same levels that prevailed before the tit-for-tat escalation. We’ll see what happens in 90 days.
Smartphones and computers: On April 12, Trump announced an exemption for some electronic devices including smartphones and computers, backdated to April 5. But Trump later said exemptions for technology from China could be short lived.
World Response
On April 3, Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on U.S. imports sparked threats of retaliation, as companies and governments rushed to count the costs from an escalating trade war that threatened to shake up global alliances. The announced penalties unleashed turbulence across world markets and drew condemnation from other leaders facing the end of an era of trade liberalization that has shaped the global order for decades. Emerging economies worldwide are bracing for sliding currencies and a possible deterioration of their sovereign credit after Trump’s tariffs brought levies on U.S. imports to their highest levels in 100 years.
"We are immediately concerned by the potential impact of the severe tariffs imposed on a range of emerging economies — an approach which risks further damaging the development prospects of countries already facing worsening terms of trade," said John Denton, Secretary-General of the International Chamber of Commerce. He added that the shifts could cause a cascade of sovereign rating downgrades.
Voices of Reason:
On April 7, Bill Ackman, a billionaire backer of Trump, urged the U.S. president to pause his recently announced trade tariffs, or risk "a self-induced, economic nuclear winter". Ackman said that Trump now had "an opportunity to call a 90-day time out, negotiate and resolve unfair asymmetric tariff deals, and induce trillions of dollars of new investment in our country." Ackman's warning was echoed by JPMorgan Chase chairman Jamie Dimon saying that Trump's tariffs risked pushing up prices for Americans.
On April 13, Billionaire Ray Dalio says Trump’s tariff war has helped push America close to a recession — or perhaps even “something worse. Right now, we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession,” the founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds. And I’m worried about something worse than a recession if this isn’t handled well.” Dalio, who correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis, is part of a growing chorus, including major Wall Street banks, worried that tariffs could hamstring the U.S. economy, the world’s largest.
On April 16, U.S. stocks fell again as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that President Donald Trump’s tariffs are unprecedented in modern history, with effects that “remain highly uncertain.”
On April 21, China accused Washington of abusing tariffs and warned countries against striking a broader economic deal with the U.S. at its expense. Beijing will firmly oppose any party striking a deal at China’s expense and “will take countermeasures in a resolute and reciprocal manner,” its Commerce Ministry said.
On May 23, Trump wrote in a post that he was "recommending a straight 50% Tariff on the European Union, starting on June 1, 2025." Just minutes earlier, Trump also threatened Apple with a 25% tariff if it does not start producing iPhones in the United States. The early morning posts risked reignited the trade war Trump started in April that had cooled down in recent weeks. On May 25, Trump delayed the tariffs until July 9. Once again, he is manipulating the stock market.
On June 9, Billionaire investor Ray Dalio believes it is “too late” to combat the economic fallout of Trump’s tariffs and says the world economic order, with the U.S. at the center, is breaking down. Dalio said he had heard from a growing number of people, including exporters who trade with the United States, who recognize that “whatever happens with tariffs … radically reduced interdependencies with the U.S. is a reality that has to be planned for.”
“It is also increasingly being realized that the United States’ role as the world’s biggest consumer of manufactured goods and greatest producer of debt assets to finance its over-consumption is unsustainable.”
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that U.S. economic policies under Trump could hit the rest of the world and ultimately backfire on the U.S. Trump’s tariffs could make trade tensions worse, lower investment, hit market pricing, distort trade flows and disrupt supply chains. Although tariffs, tax cuts and deregulation could boost the U.S. economy in the short term, it could set the scene for an inflationary boom followed by a bust, it said. This could weaken U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe bet, it added.
China’s Economic Woes
China’s economy is the second largest economy in the world. Trump continues to poke the bear! Since China always takes a long-term view of things in their deliberations, I suspect they will consider all aspects in their response to Trump. This will likely play out over an extended period of time. Stayed tuned!
China’s economy has become a concern to the world. Since 2021, China’s stock market decline has wiped out some $6 trillion of shareholder value. They are also experiencing deflation while other economies grapple with inflation. In October 2023, consumer prices declined sharply in China. Are they headed to their version of the Great Depression? Let’s hope not.
China is also facing a population crisis as its birth rate continues to decline, and population shrink. In November 2023, President Xi encouraged women to go back home and have children. China needs more workers in the future to support its rapidly aging population.
Inflation
The amount of money spent by the world to combat Covid was staggering and led to high levels of inflation! Prices in the U.S. have risen 21.4% cumulatively since 2020. Prices may never return to pre-pandemic levels. Although the annual rate of inflation declined to 2.9% in 2024, it appears likely that inflation will begin to rise because of Trump’s trade war.
A stunning 96% of voters in the November 2024 election said “high prices for gas, groceries and other goods” factored in to how they cast their ballots. Among the 40% of people who named that issue the single-most important factor driving their decision, nearly two-thirds voted for Trump.
The housing shortage can be expected to worsen due to Trump’s policies putting upward pressure on housing costs. Millions of tenants are already struggling to pay historic rents. It will be difficult to increase the number of housing units if Trump deports a significant percentage of the workers who build these units. Trump’s plan to place tariffs on building materials imported into the U.S. will also drive up the cost of new construction.
With Trump’s policies, including deportations and tariffs, Americans could see their grocery bills explode. Undocumented immigrants are heavily involved in U.S. food production from the very beginning of the supply chain on farms to the tail end at grocery stores. If there are mass deportations, it would create labor scarcity and put upward pressure on wages for workers in all walks of food production, which would instantly get passed on to consumers. Americans have, understandably, been enraged at how much it’s costing them to feed themselves.
Climate change is another area that has pushed up food prices. With the increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events impacting both the quality and quantity of crop yields, thus limiting supply and driving up costs. Trump is reversing virtually all of Biden’s climate-related policies, which include provisions from the Inflation Reduction Act aimed at reducing carbon emissions. That, as well as drilling more oil, could backfire if it worsens the already dire climate-change-related issues farmers are confronting.
Economics of War
The U.S. government is spending billions of dollars supplying military equipment (weapons of mass destruction) to Israel and Ukraine. The Federal Reserve and foreign countries own the debt incurred to pay for these expenditures. The Federal Reserve simply prints the money. The money spent on the manufacture and deployment of these weapons benefits the U.S. military industrial complex the most. Some of the money goes to American workers.
Interestingly, the second largest foreign holder of our treasury securities is China. As mentioned elsewhere, Saudi Arabia has been reducing their holdings for some time.
About the Author
I have an undergraduate degree in political science and was taught to research all perspectives on any given issue affecting the electorate — the truth was to be found in the middle. We were also taught that the electorate resembled a bell curve with the majority of people in the middle. Today, the bell curve has inverted — there are few in the middle, with the majority of the electorate representing polar positions. We are a divided people!
I also have a Master of International Management degree. The focus of my “cultural studies” component of the program included Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and U.S. foreign policy. I focused my “business” component on financial management. I have intensely followed geopolitics for 40 years.
Since 1986, I have advised numerous political campaigns for the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives – Republican and Democrat.